Electric vehicles in 2025: Three visions

Around a year ago (November 2011) we ran a survey comparing three visions for the future of Electric Vehicles and asking transport professionals to say which they thought would be the most likely to come about. We’re now re-running this survey to see how views have changed and would like to invite you to participate: all you need to do is read the three visions and vote for one of them. Then, if you like, you can also put forward your own vision.

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Here is a more detailed description of each of the three visions:

Vision A - "Symbol of intent"

There is lots of talk about electric vehicles, and manufacturers launch new models on a regular basis, but purchase fails to reach beyond the “early adopters”. For manufacturers, electric vehicles are primarily a symbol of their green credentials and their technological innovation. In practice, their main efforts are on making small but continuous improvements in the efficiency of their petrol and diesel cars: the combination of the caring, leading edge brand image and the improvements in fuel economy mean that car buyers can happily purchase a modern petrol or diesel powered car believing they are making a socially responsible decision.

At the same time the plethora of different technologies being promoted by the manufacturers (hybrids, plug-in hybrids, electric, hydrogen fuel-cells) actually reduces the attractiveness of any single technology. In part this is because they have different infrastructure requirements, and in part it is because of the confusion it creates about which is the ‘best’ technology and whether it is worth holding off for the next solution (which will always sound better). Finally, adoption of technologies based on electricity will be suppressed by concerns over how green this process actually is. In fact, this would be another reason for waiting before adopting this technology; in this case waiting for the more significant use of renewable sources such as wind and water.

All these factors mean that by 2025, although electric vehicles will continue to make the news, be paraded in motor shows, and be a celeb must have, their actual use amongst the general population will be negligible.

Vision B - “Tipping point achieved"

A ‘tipping point’ is reached in 5 to 10 years time in which electric vehicles switch from being a gimmick to a mainstream option. This tipping point is achieved by the confluence of three key factors: widespread availability of charging points; the availability of a range of standard and aspirational models; general acceptance that reducing CO2 is something that everyone needs to take seriously and act on, rather than simply talk about.

The spread of charging points would reach people’s homes, their workplaces, car parks, motorway service areas. They would include both slow (overnight) and rapid charging facilities. There may even be battery exchange infrastructure so that ‘recharging’ becomes virtually instant (and no longer than filling a car with petrol).

In terms of models of electric powered vehicles, an key turning point will be when as well as specialist brands like the Prius, all main models have an electric or hybrid variant (as is already the case with the Honda Civic).

For a tipping point to be reached in the acceptance of personal responsibility for reducing CO2, it is likely that this will have to wait until worries about recession and the economy (and terrorism) have receded and climate change becomes the number one concern. Only then can it be expected that concerted communications activity by the government in this country and around the world, together with car industry, will make a real difference.

However, reaching this tipping point means that by 2025, sales of new cars are spread fairly equally between petrol, diesel, electric and hybrid variants.

Vision C - “Part of the urban landscape”

There is an urban – rural divide in the adoption of electric vehicles. In cities and suburban areas electric and hybrid vehicles are adopted willingly, while outside of these areas there is stubborn reliance on petrol and diesel cars.

This is largely driven by the availability of infrastructure: not just charging points, but effective public transport, local services and facilities, and car clubs. As well as making it easy to use an electric vehicle, these factors also mean there is not the same need to rely on car. The widespread provision of car clubs (which themselves would offer both electric and petrol/diesel vehicles) means that there is no need for a second car, and in many cases, no need to actually own a car at all.

In areas of lower population density, it will be too expensive to provide an adequate network of charging points, while public transport will remain patchy, and car clubs will not find it worthwhile to serve.

By 2025 then, sales of electric and hybrid vehicles will be reasonably substantial, but quite concentrated: not only in terms of being in more urban areas, but also more for fleet vehicles (company cars, car clubs, car rental vehicles).