A manifesto for cities’ renaissance in the age of the driverless car

Connected Autonomous Vehicles (also known as CAVs) linked through big data in a shared economy will become, according to the latest industry predictions [1], a reality in U.S.’ wealthiest urban environments within the next 10 years. What will be the face of the new city as a result of this change? How will this evolution unfold and how can administrators prepare?

The latest forecasts suggest that automation level 4 vehicles may be available for purchase within three years. This level of automation will allow CAVs 
”to perform all safety-critical driving functions and monitor roadway conditions for an entire trip” [2] but will not cover every driving scenario. In such vehicles, however, drivers could devote part of the journey to sleeping or working on a laptop instead of driving. Level 5, full automation in all conditions, should be reached by 2030.

Technology will not be the only determining factor, as issues related to CAVs will need to be addressed. This includes regulatory framework, insurance and the public’s perception of literally putting people’s lives in the hands of a robot. These challenges will be significant, but not unsurmountable, and when they will be resolved, we will witness the heralded transportation revolution [3]. The pace of change in cities will then be astonishing, and could easily materialize in less than a generation, 
an incredibly short time in a city’s life. Astonishing as well will be the change in our lifestyles.

In the coming years, urban population will keep increasing [4] and CAV technology will disrupt the business as usual transportation model. These factors could turn cities into urban nightmares if cities don’t prepare for it. Sprawling development, congestion, inequality, privacy, job-losses, and infrastructure rigidities will be among the most pressing challenges that cities’ staff and policy makers will have to face through this passage. Preparing for CAVs will mean maximizing the benefits that they will offer while mitigating, if not eliminating, their risks; and particularly, the temptation of re-designing cities around the new technology rather than around their people, as a means to improve the quality of life of all urban dwellers.

One of the much-presaged benefits of the CAV revolution, apart from safety [5], will be more efficient traffic operations leading to increased carrying-capacity 
of existing road infrastructure and less parking requirements, with the potential to reallocate road and parking space away from vehicles to other uses.

With the ever-increasing levels of traffic congestion that urban environments will keep experiencing in the coming years, there will be a temptation to simply use the space ‘gained’ for more vehicles. This strategy would be short-lived, as we have seen many times in the past how more and bigger roads simply lead, rather quickly, to more vehicles on the roads.

We think that cities’ staff and policy makers, instead, should take this opportunity to instigate a paradigm shift and break the cycle of motor vehicle dominance on U.S. streets. They should champion the reallocation of space away from automobiles, to more productive and resilient uses, people and human-scale activities, and finally break the perpetual circle of traffic-induced demand. With the advent of CAVs, cities’ staff and policy makers will have the once-in-a-lifetime chance to re-consider how their streets function as part of a movement network, and a unique opportunity to use the ‘extra space’ to retrofit their cities in a more context-conscious and sustainable way. 

[1] A useful summary of the car automakers’ plans as of 2017 is available at: Walker, Jon, “The Self-Driving Car Timeline – Predictions from the Top 11 Global Automakers,” techemergence, last modified August 24, 2017. https://www.techemergence.com/self-driving-car-timeline-themselves-top-11-automakers/

[2] See the USA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) for current market prediction: “Automated Vehicles for Safety,” National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 
(NHTSA), accessed January 8, 2017. https://www. nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety

[3] See Eno Center for Transportation for the current state of policies related to automated driving in USA: “Adopting and Adapting: States and Automated Vehicles,” Eno Center for Transportation, June 1, 2017. https://www.enotrans.org/etl-material/adopting-adapting-states-automated-vehicles/

[4] See in this regard the 2014 revision of the World Urbanization Prospects by UN DESA’s Population: 
“World’s population increasingly urban with more than half living in urban areas,” United Nations, July 10, 2014. http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/news/population/world-urbanization-prospects-2014.html

[5] According to NHTSA the safety benefits of automated vehicles will be paramount. Automated vehicles will have the potential to remove human error from the crash equation, which will help protect drivers and passengers, as well as bicyclists and pedestrians. Per NHTSA, as a reference, more than 35,092 people died in motor vehicle-related crashes in US in 2015. “Automated Vehicles for Safety,” National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), accessed January 8, 2017. https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety